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New Yorkers will discover who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a contest that will decide who runs and defends the country's most populous metropolis at a moment when Donald Trump has threatened to send military troops to the urban center.

In this context, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has matched two very different Democrats against each other. The contest has turned into an increasingly bitter face-off, laced with accusations of racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two leading contenders that could have significant consequences for how the party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has attracted international attention. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the backing of wealthy contributors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who defeated his opponent in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has run on a platform of affordability and promised to halt rent increases for about 2 million city residents, has outpaced his rival by significant margins across all surveys taken in October, and it is very much the progressive's race to lose.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, Cuomo, who resigned as governor in 2021 amid allegations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has criticized his opponent's goals as unachievable, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was strongly criticized as racist after posting an AI-generated ad that included a slew of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani releasing a convicts.

It's been a particularly ugly end to an race that could be key to the direction that the Democratic party, struggling in its reaction to the former president's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

Broader Consequences

Should Mamdani wins convincingly, the party establishment who have declined to support his campaign will be compelled to address a platform that has resonated with voters' frustration at inequality, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and the House leader not to embrace at least a portion of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the fresh face has generated an excitement within the Democratic ranks perhaps not seen since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House in 2016.

However, should the former governor, who had been expected to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, complete a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could cement the party's existing approach of considered, lackluster resistance – a tactic that has angered the party base. A New York defeat of the progressive's progressive, positive message could persuade party leaders that the wisest course is to stick to the political center – even as surveys show the present version of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Residents of the city appear to favor the progressive agenda. Polls show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent during the race. The candidate's snappy videos on social media, his optimistic vision for the city and his readiness to actually get out and connect with voters in the city has drawn an force of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them youth or new participants.

Negative Tactics

Yet, the former governor, 67, isn't giving up. And with the stakes stacked against him, the former governor has turned to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

After spending months launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might stick, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on attacking Mamdani directly. He has called Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and popped up on Fox Business for an interview with a rightwing host, where Cuomo asserted the city “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It hit bottom recently, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy mirrors much of what Trump, who has deployed the military reserves to Washington DC and warned to take similar action to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that is expected. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to the Republican in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to elect the independent elected, as other influential figures have urged Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the race.

Political Histories

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should never have come to this point. When the assemblyman, one of 150 state legislators, launched his campaign for mayor in October 2024, few had known him, and in reality, barely anyone even noticed.

The former governor, by comparison, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who apparently held all the advantages. The quintessential establishment figure, he had wed a Kennedy and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as New York governor in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his father, the former governor, left office from the same position.

The progressive, who was voted in to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – offer a brighter outlook of the future than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, the candidate has faced some challenges in the final phase, after footage surfaced appearing to show him implying the NYPD and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the recording, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in recent years. Mamdani, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, indicated he was questioning cooperative programs between the NYPD and IDF.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, Mamdani appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

The progressive responded to the independent's 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first ran for state assembly, a family member advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our beliefs.”

Addressing the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd