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Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.

That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion

The team have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Discussions range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's positions."

Call for Wider Dialogue

Westminster should engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."